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Where the Money Moved Overnight
Spread · Moneyline · Totals
KC -6.5 → -7.5 | PHI O/U 47 → 49 | LAR ML shifted -180Chiefs opened at -6.5 and have since been bet to -7.5 at five of six tracked books — sharp money confirmed at BetMGM and Circa. Eagles total has climbed 2 points on public over action. Rams moneyline seeing reverse line movement despite 68% public backing on opponent.
Who's Out, Who's Limited, Who's a Gamble
Updated 5:30 AM EST
Mahomes (ankle) — Q | McCaffrey (knee) — OUT | Tatum (thumb) — LPPatrick Mahomes logged limited practice Wednesday. Source inside facility: "He's moving fine, but they're managing reps." McCaffrey officially ruled out — Elijah Mitchell gets the start. Tatum listed LP but expected to play; monitor 90-minute pregame warmup.
Waiver Wire Targets Worth Losing Sleep Over
PPR · Half-PPR · Standard
Mitchell (RB, SF) — 78% rostered | Pittman (WR, IND) — target share spikeWith McCaffrey out, Elijah Mitchell becomes an RB1 play. Add in all formats immediately — he's available in 31% of leagues. Michael Pittman saw 12 targets last week with Richardson under center; extrapolates to 7+ catches in favorable matchup vs. TB zone.
Where Public and Sharp Money Diverge
Action Network · Pregame · Pinnacle
73% public on Cowboys · Sharp: Commanders +7 | Reverse line movement detectedCowboys drawing 73% of spread tickets but line has moved from -6.5 to -5.5 — textbook reverse line movement. Sharp bettors fading the public. Commanders +7 at Pinnacle sharp-tracked. Under 44.5 has 3 of 4 steam moves. Fade the public, follow the steam.
Every Game Worth Your Attention, Ranked
14 Games · 3 Primetime · 2 Weather Alerts
BUF @ MIA (wind 22mph) | LAC @ DEN (altitude) | SNF: DAL @ PHIBuffalo-Miami headlined by 22mph sustained wind off Lake Erie — lean unders hard. Chargers traveling to altitude in Denver; historically covers ATS in home opener. Sunday Night Football: Dallas-Philly line sitting at 8.5, highest spread of the week. Watch for late line movement post-injury report Friday.
The Numbers That Change How You View Sunday
DVOA · EPA · Target Share
PHI DEF allows 78th percentile EPA/play to slot WRs | DEN OL — 3rd in pass blockEagles' slot cornerback coverage ranks 78th percentile in EPA allowed — Smith-Schuster is in the perfect spot. Denver offensive line grades 3rd in pass block win rate per PFF, making Nathaniel Hackett's scheme sustainable. Data-driven edges the public can't see.
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